EWN 10 day weatherforecast

Windunit

m/s km/h mph kts

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Maarja, Jõgevamaa, 71 masl

Table

Graphs

Maps

Accuracy

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Forecastgraph

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EWN puts the forecast-models in a real test by monitoring their accuracy also outside their "home-area" which usually is the country of the issuing meteorologic institute. The accuracy are monitored for ca 900 locations north of the Alps and are calculated by comparing the forecast with the observed temperature every 3 hours at 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18 and 21 UTC. The used forecast for the next day are generated at ca 18 UTC. Theese results are then used for calculating the EWN forecast.

Models
- EWN: EWN's own forecast
- WRFDA: WRF runned by EWN
- DWD: ICON, DWD, Germany
- MF-Arpege: ARPEGE, Meteo France
- MF-Arome: AROME, Meteo France
- KNMI: Hirlam, KNMI, The Netherlands
- FMI: Hirlam, FMI, Finland
- YR: XML-files (AROME-MetCoOp, Hirlam, ECMWF), MET Norway (yr.no)
- GFS: GFS, NCEP, USA
- CMC: CMC Ensemble, CMC, Canada
- WXSIM: WXSIM-software runned by private weatherstations (data not available for all locations)

Accuracy for Maarja

EWN

FMI

DWD

KNMI

GFS

CMC

WXSIM

Good forecasts (±2°)

Mean error

Good forecasts (±2°)

Mean error

Model accuracy

The average total accuracy for each forecast-model.

EWN

FMI

DWD

KNMI

GFS

CMC

WXSIM

Good forecasts (±2°)

Mean error

Good forecasts (±2°)

Mean error

Close observations

mm
	30+
	25-30
	20-25
	15-20
	10-15
	6-10
	4-6
	2-4
	1-2
	0.5-1
	0.2-0.5
	0.1-0.2
	Snowfall
	Sleet
	Hail
	Freezing
	Thunder

mm
	50

	30

	22

	14

	9

	7

	5

	4

	3

	2

	1

	0.6

	0.2



	35°




	30°




	25°




	20°




	15°




	10°




	5°




	0°




	-5°




	-10°




	-15°




	-20°




	-25°




	-30°




	-35°

m/s
	33+
	29
	25
	21
	17
	14
	11
	8
	5
	3
	0

m/s
	100
	90
	80
	70
	60
	50
	40
	30

m/s
	50+
	45
	40
	35
	30
	25
	20
	15
	10
	5
	0

J/kg
	2600
	2400
	2200
	2000
	1800
	1600
	1400
	1200
	1000
	800
	600
	400
	200

dBZ
	70
	65
	60
	55
	50
	45
	40
	35
	30
	25
	20
	15
	10
	5

K
	-1
	-2
	-3
	-4
	-5
	-6
	-7
	-8
	-9

m²/s²
	950
	900
	850
	800
	750
	700
	650
	600
	550
	500
	450
	400
	350
	300
	250
	200
	150
	100

m/s
	46
	44
	42
	40
	38
	36
	34
	32
	30
	28
	26
	24
	22
	20
	16
	12
	8
	4

m/s
	30
	28
	26
	24
	22
	20
	18
	16
	14
	12
	10
	8
	6
	4
	2

	3.0
	2.8
	2.6
	2.4
	2.2
	2.0
	1.8
	1.6
	1.4
	1.2
	1.0
	0.8
	0.6
	0.4
	0.2

	15
	14
	13
	12
	11
	10
	9
	8
	7
	6
	5
	4
	3
	2
	1

%
	90
	80
	70
	60
	50
	40
	30
	20
	10

cm
	200+
	175-200
	150-175
	125-150
	100-125
	80-100
	60-80
	40-60
	20-40
	10-20
	0-10

	Snowfall
	Sleet
	Rain

mm
	>120

	110

	100

	90

	80

	70

	60

	50

	40

	30

	20

	10

hPa


	960



	880



	800



	720



	640



	560

gpdm


	584



	568



	552



	536



	520



	504



	488

Extremely severe	Severe weather		Lightning probability
15%	15%	5%	50%	15%

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